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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2016-04-10T11:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-04-10T11:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/10471/-1
CME Note: CME associated with large filament eruption situated close to N18E29 starting around 10UTC.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-04-14T06:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-04-13T14:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2016 Apr 11 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low this period due to a long-duration C1 flare
observed at 11/0202 UTC from Region 2529 (N09E34, Ehi/beta). Region 2529
exhibited some intermediate spot growth and maintained a simple bi-pole
magnetic configuration. New Region 2530 (N16W05, Cao/beta) emerged on
this disk this period and was quiet and stable.

An approximately 10 degree long filament, centered near N18E29, was
observed erupting at about 10/1000 UTC. An associated CME was observed
in LASCO C2 imagery lifting off the NNE limb beginning at 10/1100 UTC.
CME analysis, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output, suggests a possible
weak, glancing blow at Earth mid to late 13 April. No other
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2016 Apr 11 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 11-Apr 13 2016 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 11-Apr 13 2016

            Apr 11     Apr 12     Apr 13
00-03UT        1          2          5 (G1)
03-06UT        0          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        1          3          5 (G1)
09-12UT        1          2          4     
12-15UT        2          2          3     
15-18UT        2          3          3     
18-21UT        2          4          4     
21-00UT        3          4          4     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on day three
(13 Apr) in response to a negative polarity coronal hole high speed
stream.

Lead Time: 73.72 hour(s)
Difference: 16.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2016-04-11T05:07Z

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